A multifault earthquake threat for the Seattle metropolitan region revealed by mass tree mortality.

Compound earthquakes involving simultaneous ruptures along multiple faults often define a region's upper threshold of maximum magnitude. Yet, the potential for linked faulting remains poorly understood given the infrequency of these events in the historic era. Geological records provide longer perspectives, although temporal uncertainties are too broad to clearly pinpoint single multifault events. Here, we use dendrochronological dating and a cosmogenic radiation pulse to constrain the death dates of earthquake-killed trees along two adjacent fault zones near Seattle, Washington to within a 6-month period between the 923 and 924 CE growing seasons. Our narrow constraints conclusively show linked rupturing that occurred either as a single composite earthquake of estimated magnitude 7.8 or as a closely spaced double earthquake sequence with estimated magnitudes of 7.5 and 7.3. These scenarios, which are not recognized in current hazard models, increase the maximum earthquake size needed for seismic preparedness and engineering design within the Puget Sound region of >4 million residents.

Long-term tropical cyclones activity shapes forest structure and reduces tree species diversity of U.S. temperate forests.

Increasing tropical cyclone (TC) pressure on temperate forests is inevitable under the recent global increase of the intensity and poleward migration of TCs. However, the long-term effects of TCs on large-scale structure and diversity of temperate forests remain unclear. Here, we aim to ascertain the legacy of TCs on forest structure and tree species richness by using structural equation models that consider several environmental gradients and use an extensive dataset containing >140,000 plots with >3 million trees from natural temperate forests across eastern United States impacted by TCs. We found that high TC activity (a combination of TC frequency and intensity) leads to a decrease in maximum tree sizes (height and diameter), an increase in tree density and basal area, and a decline in the number of tree species and recruits. We identified TC activity as the strongest predictor of forest structure and species richness in xeric (dry) forests, while it had a weaker impact on hydric (wet) forests. We highlight the sensitivity of forest structure and tree species richness to impacts of likely further increase of TC activity in interaction with climate extremes, especially drought. Our results show that increased TC activity leads to the homogenization of forest structure and reduced tree species richness in U.S. temperate forests. These findings suggest that further declines in tree species richness may be expected because of the projected increase of future levels of TC activity.

The Searsville Lake Site (California, USA) as a candidate Global boundary Stratotype Section and Point for the Anthropocene series.

Cores from Searsville Lake within Stanford University's Jasper Ridge Biological Preserve, California, USA, are examined to identify a potential GSSP for the Anthropocene: core JRBP2018-VC01B (944.5 cm-long) and tightly correlated JRBP2018-VC01A (852.5 cm-long). Spanning from 1900 CE ± 3 years to 2018 CE, a secure chronology resolved to the sub-annual level allows detailed exploration of the Holocene-Anthropocene transition. We identify the primary GSSP marker as first appearance of 239,240Pu (372-374 cm) in JRBP2018-VC01B and designate the GSSP depth as the distinct boundary between wet and dry season at 366 cm (6 cm above the first sample containing 239,240Pu) and corresponding to October-December 1948 CE. This is consistent with a lag of 1-2 years between ejection of 239,240Pu into the atmosphere and deposition. Auxiliary markers include: first appearance of 137Cs in 1958; late 20th-century decreases in δ15N; late 20th-century elevation in SCPs, Hg, Pb, and other heavy metals; and changes in abundance and presence of ostracod, algae, rotifer and protozoan microfossils. Fossil pollen document anthropogenic landscape changes related to logging and agriculture. As part of a major university, the Searsville site has long been used for research and education, serves users locally to internationally, and is protected yet accessible for future studies and communication about the Anthropocene. Plain Word Summary: The Global boundary Stratotype Section and Point (GSSP) for the proposed Anthropocene Series/Epoch is suggested to lie in sediments accumulated over the last ~120 years in Searsville Lake, Woodside, California, USA. The site fulfills all of the ideal criteria for defining and placing a GSSP. In addition, the Searsville site is particularly appropriate to mark the onset of the Anthropocene, because it was anthropogenic activities-the damming of a watershed-that created a geologic record that now preserves the very signals that can be used to recognize the Anthropocene worldwide.

Growth portfolios buffer climate-linked environmental change in marine systems.

Large-scale, climate-induced synchrony in the productivity of fish populations is becoming more pronounced in the world's oceans. As synchrony increases, a population's "portfolio" of responses can be diminished, in turn reducing its resilience to strong perturbation. Here we argue that the costs and benefits of trait synchronization, such as the expression of growth rate, are context dependent. Contrary to prevailing views, synchrony among individuals could actually be beneficial for populations if growth synchrony increases during favorable conditions, and then declines under poor conditions when a broader portfolio of responses could be useful. Importantly, growth synchrony among individuals within populations has seldom been measured, despite well-documented evidence of synchrony across populations. Here, we used century-scale time series of annual otolith growth to test for changes in growth synchronization among individuals within multiple populations of a marine keystone species (Atlantic cod, Gadus morhua). On the basis of 74,662 annual growth increments recorded in 13,749 otoliths, we detected a rising conformity in long-term growth rates within five northeast Atlantic cod populations in response to both favorable growth conditions and a large-scale, multidecadal mode of climate variability similar to the East Atlantic Pattern. The within-population synchrony was distinct from the across-population synchrony commonly reported for large-scale environmental drivers. Climate-linked, among-individual growth synchrony was also identified in other Northeast Atlantic pelagic, deep-sea and bivalve species. We hypothesize that growth synchrony in good years and growth asynchrony in poorer years reflects adaptive trait optimization and bet hedging, respectively, that could confer an unexpected, but pervasive and stabilizing, impact on marine population productivity in response to large-scale environmental change.

Global decline in ocean memory over the 21st century.

Ocean memory, the persistence of ocean conditions, is a major source of predictability in the climate system beyond weather time scales. We show that ocean memory, as measured by the year-to-year persistence of sea surface temperature anomalies, is projected to steadily decline in the coming decades over much of the globe. This global decline in ocean memory is predominantly driven by shoaling of the upper-ocean mixed layer depth in response to global surface warming, while thermodynamic and dynamic feedbacks can contribute substantially regionally. As the mixed layer depth shoals, stochastic forcing becomes more effective in driving sea surface temperature anomalies, increasing high-frequency noise at the expense of persistent signals. Reduced ocean memory results in shorter lead times of skillful persistence-based predictions of sea surface thermal conditions, which may present previously unknown challenges for predicting climate extremes and managing marine biological resources under climate change.

Interannual temperature variability is a principal driver of low-frequency fluctuations in marine fish populations.

Marine fish populations commonly exhibit low-frequency fluctuations in biomass that can cause catch volatility and thus endanger the food and economic security of dependent coastal societies. Such variability has been linked to fishing intensity, demographic processes and environmental variability, but our understanding of the underlying drivers remains poor for most fish stocks. Our study departs from previous findings showing that sea surface temperature (SST) is a significant driver of fish somatic growth variability and that life-history characteristics mediate population-level responses to environmental variability. We use autoregressive models to simulate how fish populations integrate SST variability over multiple years depending on fish life span and trophic position. We find that simulated SST-driven population dynamics can explain a significant portion of observed low-frequency variability in independent observations of fisheries landings around the globe. Predictive skill, however, decreases with increasing fishing pressure, likely due to demographic truncation. Using our modelling approach, we also show that increases in the mean and variance of SST could amplify biomass volatility and lessen its predictability in the future. Overall, biological integration of high-frequency SST variability represents a null hypothesis with which to explore the drivers of low-frequency population change across upper-trophic marine species.

Continental-scale tree-ring-based projection of Douglas-fir growth: Testing the limits of space-for-time substitution.

A central challenge in global change research is the projection of the future behavior of a system based upon past observations. Tree-ring data have been used increasingly over the last decade to project tree growth and forest ecosystem vulnerability under future climate conditions. But how can the response of tree growth to past climate variation predict the future, when the future does not look like the past? Space-for-time substitution (SFTS) is one way to overcome the problem of extrapolation: the response at a given location in a warmer future is assumed to follow the response at a warmer location today. Here we evaluated an SFTS approach to projecting future growth of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii), a species that occupies an exceptionally large environmental space in North America. We fit a hierarchical mixed-effects model to capture ring-width variability in response to spatial and temporal variation in climate. We found opposing gradients for productivity and climate sensitivity with highest growth rates and weakest response to interannual climate variation in the mesic coastal part of Douglas-fir's range; narrower rings and stronger climate sensitivity occurred across the semi-arid interior. Ring-width response to spatial versus temporal temperature variation was opposite in sign, suggesting that spatial variation in productivity, caused by local adaptation and other slow processes, cannot be used to anticipate changes in productivity caused by rapid climate change. We thus substituted only climate sensitivities when projecting future tree growth. Growth declines were projected across much of Douglas-fir's distribution, with largest relative decreases in the semiarid U.S. Interior West and smallest in the mesic Pacific Northwest. We further highlight the strengths of mixed-effects modeling for reviving a conceptual cornerstone of dendroecology, Cook's 1987 aggregate growth model, and the great potential to use tree-ring networks and results as a calibration target for next-generation vegetation models.

The revolution of crossdating in marine palaeoecology and palaeoclimatology.

Over the past century, the dendrochronology technique of crossdating has been widely used to generate a global network of tree-ring chronologies that serves as a leading indicator of environmental variability and change. Only recently, however, has this same approach been applied to growth increments in calcified structures of bivalves, fish and corals in the world's oceans. As in trees, these crossdated marine chronologies are well replicated, annually resolved and absolutely dated, providing uninterrupted multi-decadal to millennial histories of ocean palaeoclimatic and palaeoecological processes. Moreover, they span an extensive geographical range, multiple trophic levels, habitats and functional types, and can be readily integrated with observational physical or biological records. Increment width is the most commonly measured parameter and reflects growth or productivity, though isotopic and elemental composition capture complementary aspects of environmental variability. As such, crossdated marine chronologies constitute powerful observational templates to establish climate-biology relationships, test hypotheses of ecosystem functioning, conduct multi-proxy reconstructions, provide constraints for numerical climate models, and evaluate the precise timing and nature of ocean-atmosphere interactions. These 'present-past-future' perspectives provide new insights into the mechanisms and feedbacks between the atmosphere and marine systems while providing indicators relevant to ecosystem-based approaches of fisheries management.

Rising synchrony controls western North American ecosystems.

Along the western margin of North America, the winter expression of the North Pacific High (NPH) strongly influences interannual variability in coastal upwelling, storm track position, precipitation, and river discharge. Coherence among these factors induces covariance among physical and biological processes across adjacent marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we show that over the past century the degree and spatial extent of this covariance (synchrony) has substantially increased, and is coincident with rising variance in the winter NPH. Furthermore, centuries-long blue oak (Quercus douglasii) growth chronologies sensitive to the winter NPH provide robust evidence that modern levels of synchrony are among the highest observed in the context of the last 250 years. These trends may ultimately be linked to changing impacts of the El Niño Southern Oscillation on midlatitude ecosystems of North America. Such a rise in synchrony may destabilize ecosystems, expose populations to higher risks of extinction, and is thus a concern given the broad biological relevance of winter climate to biological systems.

A boundary current drives synchronous growth of marine fishes across tropical and temperate latitudes.

Entrainment of growth patterns of multiple species to single climatic drivers can lower ecosystem resilience and increase the risk of species extinction during stressful climatic events. However, predictions of the effects of climate change on the productivity and dynamics of marine fishes are hampered by a lack of historical data on growth patterns. We use otolith biochronologies to show that the strength of a boundary current, modulated by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, accounted for almost half of the shared variance in annual growth patterns of five of six species of tropical and temperate marine fishes across 23° of latitude (3000 km) in Western Australia. Stronger flow during La Niña years drove increased growth of five species, whereas weaker flow during El Niño years reduced growth. Our work is the first to link the growth patterns of multiple fishes with a single oceanographic/climate phenomenon at large spatial scales and across multiple climate zones, habitat types, trophic levels and depth ranges. Extreme La Niña and El Niño events are predicted to occur more frequently in the future and these are likely to have implications for these vulnerable ecosystems, such as a limited capacity of the marine taxa to recover from stressful climatic events.

The bivalve Glycymeris pilosa as a multidecadal environmental archive for the Adriatic and Mediterranean Seas.

We evaluated the potential of Glycymeris pilosa as an environmental indicator for the Mediterranean region by applying sclerochronological techniques on a sample set collected from Pasman Channel in the middle Adriatic Sea. Maximal longevity of analyzed shells was 69 years. Growth increments in acetate peels of the hinge region had clear boundaries, and there was a strongly synchronous signal in growth-increment width among individuals. The final, replicated chronology spanned 1969 to 2013. Shell growth negatively correlated with local summer sea temperatures and positively with November precipitation. High correlation between shell growth and circulation patterns in the northern Ionian was also observed, with slower growth occurring during cyclonic regimes. Given its broad distribution in the region and the ability to crossdate, generate annually-resolved chronologies, and of a length that substantially overlaps with observational records, G. pilosa has considerable potential to test hypotheses relating to environmental variability and biological response in the Mediterranean.

The value of crossdating to retain high-frequency variability, climate signals, and extreme events in environmental proxies.

High-resolution biogenic and geologic proxies in which one increment or layer is formed per year are crucial to describing natural ranges of environmental variability in Earth's physical and biological systems. However, dating controls are necessary to ensure temporal precision and accuracy; simple counts cannot ensure that all layers are placed correctly in time. Originally developed for tree-ring data, crossdating is the only such procedure that ensures all increments have been assigned the correct calendar year of formation. Here, we use growth-increment data from two tree species, two marine bivalve species, and a marine fish species to illustrate sensitivity of environmental signals to modest dating error rates. When falsely added or missed increments are induced at one and five percent rates, errors propagate back through time and eliminate high-frequency variability, climate signals, and evidence of extreme events while incorrectly dating and distorting major disturbances or other low-frequency processes. Our consecutive Monte Carlo experiments show that inaccuracies begin to accumulate in as little as two decades and can remove all but decadal-scale processes after as little as two centuries. Real-world scenarios may have even greater consequence in the absence of crossdating. Given this sensitivity to signal loss, the fundamental tenets of crossdating must be applied to fully resolve environmental signals, a point we underscore as the frontiers of growth-increment analysis continue to expand into tropical, freshwater, and marine environments.

Evidence of climate-driven ecosystem reorganization in the Gulf of Mexico.

The Gulf of Mexico is one of the most ecologically and economically valuable marine ecosystems in the world and is affected by a variety of natural and anthropogenic phenomena including climate, hurricanes, coastal development, agricultural runoff, oil spills, and fishing. These complex and interacting stressors, together with the highly dynamic nature of this ecosystem, present challenges for the effective management of its resources. We analyze a compilation of over 100 indicators representing physical, biological, and economic aspects of the Gulf of Mexico and find that an ecosystem-wide reorganization occurred in the mid-1990s. Further analysis of fishery landings composition data indicates a major shift in the late 1970s coincident with the advent of US national fisheries management policy, as well as significant shifts in the mid-1960s and the mid-1990s. These latter shifts are aligned temporally with changes in a major climate mode in the Atlantic Ocean: the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). We provide an explanation for how the AMO may drive physical changes in the Gulf of Mexico, thus altering higher-level ecosystem dynamics. The hypotheses presented here should provide focus for further targeted studies, particularly in regard to whether and how management should adjust to different climate regimes or states of nature. Our study highlights the challenges in understanding the effects of climatic drivers against a background of multiple anthropogenic pressures, particularly in a system where these forces interact in complex and nonlinear ways.

Long-term growth-increment chronologies reveal diverse influences of climate forcing on freshwater and forest biota in the Pacific Northwest.

Analyses of how organisms are likely to respond to a changing climate have focused largely on the direct effects of warming temperatures, though changes in other variables may also be important, particularly the amount and timing of precipitation. Here, we develop a network of eight growth-increment width chronologies for freshwater mussel species in the Pacific Northwest, United States and integrate them with tree-ring data to evaluate how terrestrial and aquatic indicators respond to hydroclimatic variability, including river discharge and precipitation. Annual discharge averaged across water years (October 1-September 30) was highly synchronous among river systems and imparted a coherent pattern among mussel chronologies. The leading principal component of the five longest mussel chronologies (1982-2003; PC1(mussel)) accounted for 47% of the dataset variability and negatively correlated with the leading principal component of river discharge (PC1(discharge); r = -0.88; P < 0.0001). PC1(mussel) and PC1(discharge) were closely linked to regional wintertime precipitation patterns across the Pacific Northwest, the season in which the vast majority of annual precipitation arrives. Mussel growth was also indirectly related to tree radial growth, though the nature of the relationships varied across the landscape. Negative correlations occurred in forests where tree growth tends to be limited by drought while positive correlations occurred in forests where tree growth tends to be limited by deep or lingering snowpack. Overall, this diverse assemblage of chronologies illustrates the importance of winter precipitation to terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems and suggests that a complexity of climate responses must be considered when estimating the biological impacts of climate variability and change.

Climate change. Six centuries of variability and extremes in a coupled marine-terrestrial ecosystem.

Reported trends in the mean and variability of coastal upwelling in eastern boundary currents have raised concerns about the future of these highly productive and biodiverse marine ecosystems. However, the instrumental records on which these estimates are based are insufficiently long to determine whether such trends exceed preindustrial limits. In the California Current, a 576-year reconstruction of climate variables associated with winter upwelling indicates that variability increased over the latter 20th century to levels equaled only twice during the past 600 years. This modern trend in variance may be unique, because it appears to be driven by an unprecedented succession of extreme, downwelling-favorable, winter climate conditions that profoundly reduce productivity for marine predators of commercial and conservation interest.

Otolith oxygen isotopes measured by high-precision secondary ion mass spectrometry reflect life history of a yellowfin sole (Limanda aspera).

RATIONALE: The oxygen isotope ratio (δ(18)O value) of aragonite fish otoliths is dependent on the temperature and the δ(18)O value of the ambient water and can thus reflect the environmental history of a fish. Secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS) offers a spatial-resolution advantage over conventional acid-digestion techniques for stable isotope analysis of otoliths, especially given their compact nature. METHODS: High-precision otolith δ(18)O analysis was conducted with an IMS-1280 ion microprobe to investigate the life history of a yellowfin sole (Limanda aspera), a Bering Sea species known to migrate ontogenetically. The otolith was cut transversely through its core and one half was roasted to eliminate organic contaminants. Values of δ(18)O were measured in 10-µm spots along three transects (two in the roasted half, one in the unroasted half) from the core toward the edge. Otolith annual growth zones were dated using the dendrochronology technique of crossdating. RESULTS: Measured values of δ(18)O ranged from 29.0 to 34.1‰ (relative to Vienna Standard Mean Ocean Water). Ontogenetic migration from shallow to deeper waters was reflected in generally increasing δ(18)O values from age-0 to approximately age-7 and subsequent stabilization after the expected onset of maturity at age-7. Cyclical variations of δ(18)O values within juvenile otolith growth zones, up to 3.9‰ in magnitude, were caused by a combination of seasonal changes in the temperature and the δ(18)O value of the ambient water. CONCLUSIONS: The ion microprobe produced a high-precision and high-resolution record of the relative environmental conditions experienced by a yellowfin sole that was consistent with population-level studies of ontogeny. Furthermore, this study represents the first time that crossdating has been used to ensure the dating accuracy of δ(18)O measurements in otoliths.

Local stressors reduce coral resilience to bleaching.

Coral bleaching, during which corals lose their symbiotic dinoflagellates, typically corresponds with periods of intense heat stress, and appears to be increasing in frequency and geographic extent as the climate warms. A fundamental question in coral reef ecology is whether chronic local stress reduces coral resistance and resilience from episodic stress such as bleaching, or alternatively promotes acclimatization, potentially increasing resistance and resilience. Here we show that following a major bleaching event, Montastraea faveolata coral growth rates at sites with higher local anthropogenic stressors remained suppressed for at least 8 years, while coral growth rates at sites with lower stress recovered in 2-3 years. Instead of promoting acclimatization, our data indicate that background stress reduces coral fitness and resilience to episodic events. We also suggest that reducing chronic stress through local coral reef management efforts may increase coral resilience to global climate change.